Solar rebate set to shrink before ending in 2030: what it means for costs
Federal solar and battery incentives step down every year until 2030, according to Ecogeneration — here's how that affects what you'll pay now.
The federal government's small-scale solar rebate is on a fixed countdown, and the discount on offer gets smaller every year between now and when the scheme closes. If you've been putting off solar, a battery or a heat pump hot water system, the incentive you'd get today is bigger than the one you'll get in a couple of years' time.
What happened
According to Ecogeneration, the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme — the mechanism behind the STC (small-scale technology certificate) discount applied to solar, battery and heat pump hot water installations — is legislated to end on 31 December 2030, with no certificates issued for new installations from January 2031.
The certificates are worth less each year as the scheme winds down. Ecogeneration reports that SolarQuotes estimates put the federal incentive on a typical 6.6 kilowatt residential solar system falling from around $1,630 in 2026 to about $330 by 2030, and the maximum theoretical STC value on a typical 10-kilowatt-hour battery dropping from roughly $2,720 in 2026 to around $840 by late 2030 — though actual discounts depend on eligibility, timing and certificate prices at the time.
The scheme has also just been widened rather than narrowed in one respect: from 1 October 2026, mid-scale rooftop solar systems between 100 kilowatts and one megawatt became eligible, extending support to larger commercial, agricultural and community projects on a fixed five-year certificate entitlement. Industry bodies including the Clean Energy Council want the household scheme extended to 2040, and the Climate Change Authority has floated extra support for batteries, but as it stands there's no confirmed replacement for after 2030.
What it means for your costs
Our live cost model already reflects current STC and incentive settings, so the figures below are what a household would typically pay today, after the current discount.
A mid-range 6 kWp solar system with no battery typically runs to $8,900, with a realistic range of $6,950 – $11,600. Add a battery and the ask increases — a $10,300 system for a 10 kWh battery, for example — which is also the equipment category covered by the separate federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program, a certificate-based discount on batteries that, like solar STCs, reduces every six months on its way to 2030.
A heat pump hot water system, which earns its own STC discount, typically costs $4,500 installed, against $3,500 – $5,850 depending on tank size and the job. See our full Solar panels and Heat pump hot water guides for the breakdown by tier and the assumptions behind each figure.
Two points are worth making about the maths. First, the amounts above are what you'd pay now, with this year's certificate value already factored in — they're not going to get cheaper by waiting, because the discount only shrinks from here. Second, the federal scheme sits alongside state programs that are separate and currently unaffected by the 2030 timeline: Victoria's Solar Homes rebate offers up to $1,400 off eligible solar installations (with a household income cap of $150,000 from 1 July 2026), and in Western Australia, residential battery buyers can get up to $1,300 through Synergy or up to $3,800 through Horizon Power if they join a virtual power plant.
Should you act now?
If you've been quoting a solar or battery job for later in the decade, the numbers above are the argument for bringing it forward rather than pushing it back — every year closer to 2030 shaves more off the certificate value, and nobody has committed to what, if anything, replaces it. That said, don't let a shrinking rebate push you into a rushed decision on system size or battery capacity; it's still worth getting the specification right for your roof and usage.
As always, electrical and plumbing connections for solar, battery and heat pump installations need to be carried out by licensed tradespeople under state licensing rules. Before signing anything, it's worth running the numbers through our "is my quote fair" tool to see how a specific quote compares with typical costs for the same scope and location.
We calculate these figures from labour hours at local trade rates plus current materials and equipment pricing, then check the result against market quotes and real jobs — so the cost ranges above reflect what households are actually being charged today, not a theoretical minimum.