Solar rebate STCs shrink every year to 2030 — what it means for your quote
The federal solar scheme winds down to 2030, with battery and heat-pump hot water discounts falling too. Here's what that means for your costs now.
Australia's main federal solar incentive is on a fixed countdown, and the discount shrinks every year between now and 2030. According to SolarQuotes, the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) issues Small-scale Technology Certificates (STCs) based on how many years remain before the scheme closes — five years' worth for a system installed in 2026, four in 2027, down to one in 2030, and nothing for installations from 2031.
What's actually changing
The scheme isn't ending overnight. It's been phasing down since 2016, and SolarQuotes reports that most of today's discount will already be gone well before the 2030 cut-off — so there's no cliff-edge moment to rush for. The same step-down applies to the federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program and to heat-pump hot water systems, both of which also earn STCs that shrink on the same schedule. SolarQuotes notes installer uptake has kept climbing even as the rebate has fallen, with rooftop solar now on more than 4.5 million Australian homes and small businesses.
The article also flags that eligibility isn't automatic: STCs depend on using approved products and accredited installers, and the Clean Energy Regulator can inspect jobs and withdraw certificates if requirements aren't met. For heat-pump hot water specifically, SolarQuotes notes the government is working on a permanent efficiency standard to take over that role once STCs disappear, and a new national technical framework is being developed for solar inverters, batteries and EV chargers. SolarQuotes also warns homeowners to be wary of sales pitches that dress up the scheduled, gradual step-down as a rebate "ending" — the scheme's value is falling on a known timetable, not vanishing in one hit, and no decision has been made yet on what, if anything, replaces it after 2030.
What it means for your quote
Quoted prices for solar, batteries and heat-pump hot water are shown to you after the STC discount is already applied — so a smaller STC each year generally shows up as a higher headline price over time, all else being equal, not as a separate line item you'd notice disappearing.
For a typical rooftop system, a $8,950 mid-range job (installed cost $6,950 – $11,600) already reflects this year's STC value. Adding a battery changes the sum again: a 10 kWh battery typically runs to around $10,400, and that price also includes a battery incentive that steps down every six months under the Cheaper Home Batteries Program. See our Solar panels for the full cost breakdown by system size and battery option.
Heat-pump hot water systems get a smaller STC credit than solar or batteries, but the same direction of travel applies. A typical installation costs $4,500, within a $3,500 – $5,850 range — see Heat pump hot water for sizing and running-cost detail.
Two state schemes sit on top of the federal discount and are worth checking before you sign anything. Victoria's Solar Homes program offers a rebate of up to $1,400 on panels, with the household income cap rising to $150,000 from 1 July 2026. In Western Australia, the residential battery scheme offers up to $1,300 through Synergy, or up to $3,800 through Horizon Power if you join a virtual power plant.
Should you wait or go now?
On the numbers SolarQuotes sets out, waiting for solar doesn't pay off: the STC discount only gets smaller each year, and there's no compensating jump at the other end. Batteries are a genuinely harder call, since SolarQuotes notes battery prices are expected to keep falling alongside the shrinking rebate — nobody can say with confidence today whether installing in 2026 or 2029 ends up cheaper overall. Replacing a hot water system purely to catch a disappearing STC credit is unlikely to stack up either, unless the existing unit is already due for replacement.
Whatever you decide, get more than one quote. STC-eligible work has to be done by an accredited installer using approved equipment, and that's also where quality and price vary most between tradespeople. Our quote checker tool — "is my quote fair" — is worth running any solar, battery or heat-pump hot water quote through before you commit, since it checks the price against current local rates rather than just the rebate math.
Electrical work on any of these installations must be carried out by a licensed electrician under state licensing rules, and all the figures above include GST, as quotes to households in Australia must.