Small Home Projects Are Holding Up Retail Sales; Costs to Watch

Homeowners are still spending on repairs and small upgrades, but big renovations are on hold. For you, that makes smaller jobs the easiest place to plan, price and negotiate right now.

What happened

According to TradingView, reporting a Zacks analysis, Home Depot's comparable sales rose 1.7% in its second quarter of fiscal 2026, and U.S. comparable sales rose 1.3%. Thirteen of its 16 merchandising departments posted gains, including electrical, plumbing, paint, hardware and building materials.

The mix matters. The average ticket rose 2.8%, while the number of transactions fell 1%. In other words, shoppers spent more per visit, but fewer of them showed up. Purchases over $1,000 rose 2.4%, yet the report says larger discretionary projects remain under pressure.

The same source says Lowe's saw comparable sales edge up 0.2%, with plumbing, electrical, paint, and kitchen and bath among the stronger areas. It also says cautious DIY spending held that retailer back. Home Depot kept its full-year outlook at flat to 2% growth, and the report ties a real recovery in big renovations to better housing conditions and consumer confidence.

What it means for your project costs

This is a retail sales story, not a price survey, so it doesn't tell us that your contractor's bid will rise or fall. What it does show is where homeowners are putting their money: maintenance and contained upgrades. Here is how our live cost model prices several of those jobs, before sales tax.

• Interior painting: $2,350 – $3,900 for a typical mid-range job, with a typical figure of $3,000. See our Interior painting guide.
• Water heater replacement: $1,450 – $2,450, typically $1,900. Switching fuel type or adding a circuit moves the number. See Water heater replacement.
• EV charger installation: $1,900 – $3,150, typically $2,400. A panel upgrade adds to this. See EV charger installation.
• Flooring: $3,350 – $5,600, typically $4,300. See Flooring installation.

Compare those with the large projects the report describes as soft:

• Bathroom remodel: $10,600 – $17,600, typically $13,600. See Bathroom remodel.
• Kitchen remodel: $9,350 – $15,600, typically $12,000. See Kitchen remodel.

How to use this

Don't assume a discount. Cooler demand for big remodels can mean easier scheduling, and some contractors may be more open to negotiating. We can't promise lower prices, because labor hours, local rates and materials drive a bid, not retail sales trends.

Break a big job into stages. Many owners are doing what the report describes: smaller, contained work first. Painting, flooring or a fixture swap can deliver a visible change for far less than a full gut remodel.

Watch for the permit line. Plumbing, electrical and structural changes usually need a local permit. A water heater circuit or EV charger often falls into this category, so confirm that your quote includes it.

Plan for tax. Our figures are before sales tax. Sales tax on materials varies by state, and labor is often not taxed, though rules differ.

Check incentives, not tax credits. The federal 25C and 25D credits have ended: 25D does not apply to spending after 31 December 2025, and 25C does not apply to property placed in service after that date. Some states run home energy rebate programs, and utilities often offer rebates on heat pumps, insulation and EV chargers. The DSIRE database lists state and utility programs, so check it before you sign.

How we calculate these figures

Our estimates start with labor hours multiplied by local rates, then add materials. We check the result against market prices and real quotes. That is why the ranges above are wide: a job in a high-cost metro with difficult access will sit near the top, and a simple like-for-like swap near the bottom.

Check your quote

If you're getting bids for a repair or upgrade, run each one through our quote checker ("is my quote fair") to see whether it sits inside a realistic range for your project. Get at least three written quotes, and make sure each lists materials, labor, permits and haul-away separately.

The takeaway from the retail numbers is modest: people are maintaining their homes, and they're waiting on the big-ticket projects. If yours is a small one, you're in good company, and the live figures above are the best starting point for a fair price.