Heat pump sales targets could double as ministers eye grant cuts
Manufacturers may have to sell far more heat pumps by 2030, even as the grant that helps pay for them comes under review.
Boiler manufacturers could be told to sell far more heat pumps over the next few years, even as the government considers trimming the grant that helps households pay for them, according to The i Paper.
What happened
The report says the Clean Heat Market Mechanism — the scheme critics call the "boiler tax" — could see manufacturers' heat pump sales targets more than doubled by 2030-31. Under the mechanism, manufacturers must install a set proportion of heat pumps relative to their fossil-fuel boiler sales, or pay a charge if they fall short. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) reportedly estimates that a proposed 18% target would equate to up to 236,000 heat pump installations in 2030-31.
The i Paper notes this is happening as DESNZ looks for savings of more than £2bn, and as ministers consider cutting the grants that help households cover the cost of a heat pump. Separately, the same report covers plans for plug-in home batteries: these would go on sale at retailers, but households would not be able to have them installed until 2028, while safety checks are completed.
What it means for the cost of a heat pump
For now, nothing changes about what's on offer. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme still gives households in England and Wales £7,500 off an air or ground source heat pump, as long as the installer is MCS certified. In Scotland, the Home Energy Scotland grant offers up to £7,500, plus an optional £7,500 interest-free loan. Installing a heat pump also qualifies for 0% VAT on the equipment until 31 March 2027, and the Warm Homes Plan, published in January 2026, sets out £15bn of spending to 2030 that includes grants for low-income households and loans being phased in.
The push for manufacturers to sell more heat pumps is a supply-side policy — it leans on firms rather than directly on household budgets — but it's worth watching for two reasons. First, a tougher sales target gives manufacturers more reason to compete on price and keep stock moving, which could put downward pressure on list prices over time. Second, if grants are trimmed before that competition plays out, households weighing up the switch now are in a better position than those who wait.
We calculate heat pump costs from labour hours at local trade rates plus equipment and materials, checked against market prices and real installer quotes. On that basis, an 8kW air source heat pump system currently runs to £9,750 at the basic end, £12,900 typical, and £15,400 for a premium system — see the full Air source heat pump for what drives that range. With the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant and 0% VAT applied, the amount coming out of your own pocket is substantially lower than the sticker price; how much lower depends on the system size and your installer's quote.
If you're gathering quotes now, it's worth checking each one against our "is my quote fair" tool before signing anything — particularly on labour hours and radiator or pipework upgrades, which is where heat pump quotes vary most between installers.
The home battery angle
The plug-in battery plans reported alongside the heat pump story are a separate product — small retail units rather than the fixed battery storage usually paired with solar panels — and won't be installable until 2028 regardless of when you buy one. If you're considering battery storage sooner, that's still done as part of a solar PV installation. Adding a 5 kWh battery to a typical system brings the install to around £12,500, rising to £17,700 for the largest option we price; see Solar panels for the full breakdown. These figures are unrelated to the plug-in batteries described in the report, which are a different, smaller product sold separately from a solar installation.
What to do now
Nothing in the report changes what's available today, but it's a signal that the current grant landscape may not last in its present form. If you've been putting off a heat pump quote while waiting to see what happens with prices or policy, there's little upside to waiting: the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant and 0% VAT are both time-limited, and neither is guaranteed to survive the government's search for savings. Get two or three quotes from MCS-certified installers, run them past the quote checker, and weigh the total after grant and VAT relief against the £10,100 – £16,800 typical range for a mid-tier system, rather than the pre-grant headline figure.